South Africa, China, India, Brazil, Russia, and Argentina form part of the so-called ‘emerging market’ economies, amongst others. The countries can be regarded as predominantly middle income countries although the makeup of their respective economies and trade profiles vary significantly.
The financial crisis and ensuing global growth slowdown has impacted developed countries directly with a number of high-profile economies already in recession.
Developing economies, although perhaps not as directly impacted, are set to experience slower growth conditions as they are strongly linked into global trade and a general risk aversion to emerging markets sees investment flows out of these countries.
The growth rate projections in these countries vary but one thing that is common among them is that the growth rates have started to decline in 2008 and will continue to do so in 2009. Argentina, in particular, is expected to come off strong growth in 2007 to 3 per cent in 2010.
In theory, slower economic growth will result in reduced trade since there is a general decline in income and underlying forces of demand and supply.
Growth Rates by country: 2007 - 2010 (Source: IMF, October 2008)
| Country | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
| Argentina | 8.7% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% |
| Brazil | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% |
| China | 11.9% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.8% |
| India | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% |
| Russia | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
| South Africa | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% |
These changes are likely to have a negative impact on South Africa and the Western Cape’s trade with its traditional developed-country trade partners such as the UK and the US, and possibly, with other developing countries such as Argentina.
Western Cape exports to Argentina amounted to over R52 million in 2007 and grew by 4.2% for the period between 2003-2007. Top export products to the South American country include transistors, containers, synthetic yarn, vegetable saps as well as insecticides and fungicides.
