Eskom’s massive build programme, earlier blocked by the government, now seeks to double electricity generating capacity to about 80 000MW by 2025. It will start to bear first fruit in the form of new coal-fired base load capacity in 2012. Until then, South African industry, commerce and households will have to cut their electricity use by between 10% and 20%.

There is a big gap to be plugged by the private sector, which is expected to contribute as much as 30% of new generating capacity. This will come in the form of independent power producers and co-generation projects, through which companies generate electricity from various production processes.

Renewables are currently low on Eskom’s priority list, but this may change amid technology advances and growing pressure to cut carbon emissions.

Analysing the options
Coal is set to remain South Africa’s dominant fuel source, accounting for almost three quarters of capacity in 2025. A quarter of the capacity is mooted to come from nuclear power stations.

Eskom’s two new flagship coal-fired power stations are to be commissioned fully in seven or eight years’ time, but some units are expected to be operational by 2012. The last of six units of the 4788MW Medupi station in Limpopo is planned to come on line in 2015. Full power from the 4800MW Bravo station, sited near the existing Kendal power station, is expected in 2015/16.

Eskom’s three return-to-service projects, which will provide a total of 3600MW, are on track, the most advanced of which is the Camden coal-fired station near Ermelo. Six units have already been commissioned and the remaining two are expected to operational by June. The first unit of the Grootvlei power station near Balfour was due to be commissioned in February; the last will be ready in March 2009. The last mothballed coal-fired plant, Komati, located between Middelburg and Bethal, will be fully operational by 2010.

Eskom is also raising capacity at Arnot, one of its oldest power stations, by 300MW.
The utility’s ambitious nuclear plans outline capacity of 20 000MW by 2025 from five or six new nuclear stations at an estimated cost of R720-billion. The utility has invited bids for the first plant from France’s Areva and the US’s Westinghouse, with a report-back to the Eskom board expected at the end of March. The plant is expected to be commissioned by 2016.

Eskom is also adding a combined 1 050MW of capacity to its open-cycle gas turbines at Ankerlig in Atlantis and Gourikwa near Mossel Bay, and plans two pumped storage schemes. The 1 332MW Ingula scheme near Ladysmith will be operational by 2013, while the 1 500MW Project Lima in Mpumalanga is expected to be approved by Eskom’s board in March.

To help alleviate capacity shortages, Eskom and the state are turning to independent power producers for help. There appears to be some appetite within the private sector for projects, although this will ultimately depend on the price at which Eskom purchases the power.

Eskom said recently it would call for bids within the next few months for a new base-load power station as big as Medupi, or half its size. Independent Power Southern Africa is building a new 1 040MW gas turbine at the Coega Industrial Development Zone to be operational by 2010. And the department of minerals and energy is negotiating with a private sector consortium led by US energy group AES to install 1 050MW from two peaking plants of open-cycle gas turbines to be operational by the end of 2009. There are, however, concerns about financial closure of this deal.

Eskom is also in the process of asking the private sector for co-generation proposals worth up to 3 000MW. Part of the appeal for the private sector is that electricity quotas will not be imposed on participating firms.

Several projects have been proposed by large industrial companies, including petrochemicals group Sasol and steel maker Arcelor Mittal South Africa, which seek to convert the gas they flare into electricity.

Eskom says it will consider all viable projects with capacity between 5MW and 1 000MW, and is looking beyond co-generation to classic generation projects. This opens the door for renewable projects such as wind and solar.

In the case of Eskom, alternative sources of power have up to now been a postscript to its generating plans but global focus on carbon emissions, combined with the power crunch, could add vigour to its wind and solar ambitions.

Eskom’s 100MW wind generation plant at Vredendal, powered by 50 turbines, could be operational late 2009 or early 2010. The utility will this year also build a R3-billion solar demonstration plant generating 100MW. If successful, it may be the logical route for South Africa to harness the power of the sun.

South Africa’s most advanced wind project is Darling Wind Power, which was due to go live in March. The city of Cape Town has signed a long-term power purchase agreement with the operators.