The world’s oldest custom union is facing an uncertain future coming out of the different decisions taking by members in talks on an economic partnership agreement (EPA) with the European Union (EU) last year. Some analysts believe it may well have hit a positional stalemate and be on the verge of splitting.

The South African Customs Union’s (Sacu’s) negotiations in 2007 saw Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (BLNS) signing an interim EPA to govern trade with the EU, while South Africa demurred, citing unfair terms. While the initial break-away move came from the BLNS countries (Sacu articles require intragroup consent), if there is to be a formal fracturing of Sacu it is likely to come from South Africa – the latter is said to be unhappy with the customs pool revenue distributions within Sacu, on which especially Lesotho and Swaziland rely.

Meanwhile, South Africa’s demand that the EPA be negotiated afresh would not suit Bostwana, Lesotho and Swaziland which are geared to a second round of talks on the liberalisation of services.

While representatives and economists from neighbouring states cite uncertainly on South Africa’s take on regional integration and globalisation as a concern, South Africa’s chief trade negotiator Xavier Carrim has said that the country’s approach was to go forward undermining neither the benefits achieved by some countries not the positions taken by others.